Capgemini Consulting sees downward trend in Q3 global trade levels
Growth in emerging market economies not leading to growth in global trade, suggesting local production is increasingly being favoured above imported goods and services.

Fuente:  Fecha: 29.11.2011

Capgemini Consulting sees downward trend in Q3 global trade levels

Capgemini Consulting, the global strategy and transformation consulting brand of the Capgemini Group, today announced figures from the latest edition of its Global Trade Flow Index. Capgemini Consulting’s analysis reveals a slight decline in global trade levels quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q3 2011 (1.3 percent), indicating a downward trend in global trade levels in Q3 2011, heavily impacted by challenging global economic conditions, including a weakened US economy and Eurozone debt crisis. At the same time, local domestic consumption around the world continues to rise, growing by 7.6 percent between Q3 2010 and Q3 2011, suggesting locally produced goods and services are being increasingly favored above imports.

Capgemini Consulting’s Global Trade Flow Index tracks the trade of goods and services by quarter based on an analysis of a number of trade and market-related parameters from the latest available official data (related to the import and export of goods and services) from national agencies of the 23 top countries in terms of global trade.

The Index highlights an increasing gap between trade levels in mature and emerging markets, with deceleration in import and export growth affecting all the G7 nations. Trade levels in Europe, heavily impacted by the debt crisis in the eurozone and constrained by an appreciating euro, fell by 2 percent in Q3 2011. Similarly, US trade levels also declined by 2 percent q-o-q, with a weak dollar leading to a decline in its foreign market growth and rising commodity prices further reducing its domestic consumption. Japan saw a decline in trade levels of 1.6 percent in Q3 2011, although this follows a reduction of 5.7 percent in Q2 2011, suggesting signs of recovery in the Japanese market following the continued impact of the earthquake and tsunami disaster earlier this year.

In contrast, trade levels in emerging markets were more stable, with both India and China seeing increases of 1.2 percent and 0.4 percent respectively q-o-q. Similarly, Russia saw only a slight reduction in trade levels of 0.26 percent. Overall, GDP in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) continues to grow and increased by between 2.7 and 3.5 percent in Q3 2011. However, this is not reflected in global trade flow levels which show that exports to mature markets are only declining. This suggests import volumes into these regions are heavily substituted by locally manufactured products and services.

“Due to a particularly tough economic climate, we have seen a slight decline in global trade levels this quarter,” said Roy Lenders, Vice President Supply Chain Management at Capgemini Consulting. “However, growing GDP levels in the BRIC markets are not leading to increased global trade, suggesting this local economic growth primarily benefits companies operating locally. For companies looking to benefit from growth in the BRIC countries, local operations should be the preferred way to market.”

Looking ahead to Q4 2011, global trade flows are expected to increase, driven largely by the traditional end of year seasonal upswing in trade due to the holidays. However, inflation, caused by high food prices and volatile commodity markets is a key risk for both emerging and developed markets. Ongoing US fiscal imbalances also run the risk of creating instability in financial markets, although the biggest risk to the overall outlook of the global business environment remains the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone.