Fuente: www.consultantnews.com Fecha: 06.11.2009
Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q4 2009 examines the shape of recovery
As the calendar year draws to a close, a global economic recovery is all but certain, but risks remain, according to the latest issue of the Global Economic Outlook (GEO) — the quarterly publication from Deloitte Research, a subsidiary of Deloitte Services LP in the United States. It offers perspectives and insights on the almost synchronous recovery in several economies around the world and the near- to medium-term outlook for each.
Highlights from the GEO Q4 issue include:
* Financial indicators suggest a stronger than expected recovery for most of the world’s major economies.
* Credit markets’ behavior will be a critical issue, as weak credit markets could substantially offset the otherwise positive impact of aggressive monetary policy.
* For the US, the recovery will be a different beast when compared to past recoveries: instead of the consumer driving the recovery, government spending and exports will lead the charge.
* A cautionary forecast for the United Kingdom, as the lingering effects of massive consumer debt will subdue consumer spending into 2011 and possibly beyond; growth will come, instead, from a boost to exports and investment.
* The strong Chinese recovery — no other major country in the world has performed as well — is being generated by massive fiscal and monetary expansion. While this is boosting growth quickly, it is also setting the stage for potential problems down the road: inflation, excess capacity, among others.
* The Russian economy is expected to grow next year. Yet the strength of the recovery will depend on many uncertain factors including the price of oil, the state of global capital markets, the fiscal and monetary stance of policymakers, and global investor confidence.
* Despite a deficient summer monsoon, the Indian recovery will likely be strong and will accelerate on account of a healthy fiscal stimulus and a robust recovery in industrial production.
* Japan will most likely see a modest and fragile growth, as it finds its footing under a new government.
* Finally, the Eurozone is already experiencing a surprising economic recovery. The region is in for some relatively strong growth due to a revival of exports and demand from trading partners, and a rise in consumer spending.
“The common thread of all our analyses seems to be a better-than-expected economic performance,” said Ira Kalish, Director of Global Economics, Deloitte Research. “Most of the world’s major economies are now growing and some, like Japan and the Eurozone, are growing sooner than most analysts expected. The global crisis was notable for the near synchronicity of the downturn. Likewise, the upturn appears to be happening everywhere at once—something that is not usually the case.”